President Xi Jinping Is Having Trouble Trusting His Top Military Brass
Disclaimer: This is an opinion/analysis piece
For many years now, President Xi Jinping of China has been on a mission to ensure the loyalty of his most senior military officers. In 2022 President Xi appointed six new members to the Central Military Commission (CMC). However only four years later all but one remain. So why all the change?
In order to answer that question you have to go back to when he took the presidency in 2013. Almost immediately after coming to power he began a massive anti-corruption campaign against a wide range of government and military officials. The goals of this campaign, since its inception, has been to ensure the loyalty of all government and military officials and to get rid of anyone who could pose a potential threat to his grip on power. So when President Xi appointed six new military generals to the top positions of the CMC it was assumed that these were the people he could trust. However this assumption would turn out to be incorrect.
General Zhang Youxia
All of this change shows that President Xi must have come to the conclusion that the old guard cannot be trusted. Instead he must find a new breed of rising young officers. This change perhaps suggests that he ultimately wants all the power to be in his hands. Having anyone that could challenge your rule is ultimately a threat to your power. These six most senior generals, all appointed in 2022, each had support from different factions of the military. Appointing newer, less experienced officers to these roles would mean that he doesn't have to worry about challenges to his power. In other words this is his latest move to further consolidate power.
Why write about this now you may ask? Well this past week the Ministry of National Defense announced that Zhang Youxia, only second in command of the Chinese Armed Forces after President Xi, was placed under investigation and accused of violations of the law and discipline. It has widely been understood that General Youxia has been one of President Xi’s closest confidants. President Xi Jinping’s father and General Youxia’s father knew each other personally. Additionally President Xi has kept General Youxia in office even though he surpassed the retirement age of 70. The two have known each other for decades which adds to the surprise.
This latest move means that when you look at the top military command only President Xi and General Zhang Shengmin. General Shengmin has been the one in charge of President Xi’s military purges. This now means that of the six generals appointed to the top of the CMC in 2022 only one remains. This means that there are many gaps to be filled with in China’s top military regime. In other words this suggests that any hint at military action against Taiwan within the next year or two is now even more unlikely due to a lack of experienced senior military officers in the top positions.
It is widely known that President Xi wants to see Taiwan reunited with mainland China. He reportedly had set the year 2027 as the time by which the Peoples Liberation Army(PlA) should be ready to launch military action against Taiwan. But with all of the turmoil at the top of the military I would say that there isn’t a cohesiveness in the senior military leadership that would allow for an invasion of Taiwan in the near future. Another way to look at this latest purge is that President Xi is going to try to put the right people in the right places, when it comes to the military, so that he doesn't have to deal with pushback should he decide that he wants to take Taiwan. If he suspected that his top generals weren’t onboard with launching an invasion then he may try to replace them with people who share his same views on the Taiwan issue.
In conclusion President Xi is clearly worried about a lack of loyalty within his top military leadership and his latest purge suggests just that. If President Xi wants to take Taiwan back he needs everyone in the military to be onboard with that view. Finally if he has to worry about his hold on power then he also needs to ensure no one around him has too much power. General Youxia may have crossed that line. This may have been a strategically important move to seal his grip on power but this probably won’t be the last purge President Xi makes.
