The Threat Posed by Terrorism Against the United States in 2025
National Security Analysis
Disclaimer: This is an opinion piece
For roughly the past 20 years the U.S. has in one capacity or another been involved in counter-terrorism related activities throughout the middle east. From 2001 to 2021 the U.S. had a military presence in Afghanistan. Currently the U.S. has troops stationed in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 the U.S. entered Afghanistan with the mission of destroying Al-Qaeda. Since 9/11 the U.S. has not witnessed terrorist attacks on home soil anywhere near to the extent of the 9/11 attacks. However 24 years on from the horrific day in September, 2001 the U.S. is slowly turning its attention towards other terrorist related threats rather than focusing on the main enemies of the past 20 years, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, IS, and the many affiliates. But is this the right decision?
PHOTOGRAPH:Evgeny Smirnov/UNSPLASH
There is no doubt that 20 years of fighting terrorism in the middle east has definitely drastically reduced the foreign terrorism abilities of the organizations stated above. However, leaving the main countries that have been harboring terrorists(Afghanistan and Syria primarily) is leaving an open opportunity for these terrorist groups to come back together potentially stronger. In December 2024 we saw the ousting of longtime dictator Bashar Al-Assad in Syria. His replacement is a former Al-Qaeda terrorist himself. Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of HTS, has said that HTS is not a terrorist organization and that sanctions should be lifted. The U.S. must give him the benefit of the doubt, however at the same time should keep a very watchful eye because once a terrorist perhaps forever one. If Syria goes the wrong direction it could very well turn into a terrorist breeding ground which would be the worst case scenario. The reality currently is that the terrorist groups that have posed the main threat to the U.S. over the past 20 years don't have nearly the same capability of committing foreign attacks as they once did. However U.S. security services should continue to monitor these groups so that they don't catch us out again like they did on 9/11.
I believe that the main terrorist threat currently against the U.S. comes from within. Over recent years we have seen political polarization rise to a level not seen in this country in a long time. This extreme political polarization can lead to politically motivated terrorist plots and attacks. For example, according to CSIS, between 2016 and 2024 there were 25 terrorist attacks that were motivated in one way or another by “partisan extremism”. Usually politically motivated attacks target government property, personnel, or political leaders. In other words these sorts of attacks don't target civilians in general. On the other hand the other domestic terrorist threat, white supremacy targets civilians. Over the past five years white supremacy motivated attacks have been number one in all categories. The number of people killed in said attacks alongside the number of attacks and plots that haven't been carried out. One example of a white supremacy attack was in Buffalo NY in 2022, where a racially motivated gunman entered a grocery store and killed three black people. This is one of numerous examples of racially motivated attacks. Due to the growing number of attacks motivated by political polarization and white supremacy I think it is safe to say this should be on the top of the security services watchlists for the near future.
