What Happens Now After U.S. and Israel Strike Iran?
Disclaimer: This is an opinion/analysis piece
Finally, after weeks of military buildup in the Middle East, the U.S. and Israel have launched air strikes on Iran. The initial strikes, which were decapitation strikes, resulted in the death of the supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei and other senior Iranian military and political officials. Now that the strike have finally taken place, the question is what will happened in Iran? Will there be regime change? Will the country descend into chaos?
Background
Before answering those questions we must understand what has been happening in recent weeks that has led us to this tipping point. Since the 12 day war with Iran last June, the United States, under the guide of President Trump, has been attempting to make a deal with Iran regarding the country’s nuclear program. Three rounds of talks took place between the two nations. Following the last round of talks both Iran and the U.S. made it sound as though progress was being made. However clearly President Trump felt that progress wasn’t begin made fast enough for his liking. In is his first video message posted since the strike began, President Trump said “They've rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can't take it anymore”.
Gathering of Iranians in Tehran to mourn the death of the supreme leader
When I woke up on Saturday morning to the news that the U.S. and Israel has launched strikes on Iran I was surprised and not surprised at the same time. After all the United States Military has been scaling up its presence in the region to levels not seen since prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. As former CIA Office John Kirkaou said, “if you want to know what the United States. is going to do watch the movements of the navy”. It was no secret that the U.S. was planning for an offensive attack scenario. In fact, when President Trump was asked by a reporter whether or not he was considering striking Iran he said “I guess I can say I am considering that”.
What Happens Next?
As of writing, Sunday March 1, 2026, the United States and Israel have continued to strike Iranian military and political infrastructure. In his message posted on Truth Social, President Trump said “Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand…when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations”. While he doese’t use the words regime change it is certainly implied. However President Trumps hope have so far no come true.
Even with the upper echelons of Iranian leadership decimated the country’s government still seems to be intact. From the outside, there are no signs of in fighting or a power vacuum taking place. According to article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, following the death, resignation, or incapacitation of the supreme leader, a three person leadership council will be formed. In line with article 111, the Iranian authorities have since announced that the three person leadership council will consist of President Masoud Pezeshkian, chief justice of the Supreme Court, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council. The quick establishment of this council allows us to assume that Iranian institutions are still operating normally.
Given that the Iranian government appears to still be functioning, we now must look at the actions of the Iranian population since the strikes. Only a few weeks ago there were protests against the autocratic regime, on a scale, that has not been seen since the Iranian revolution in 1979. However as of now it doese’t seem that people are mobilizing in the streets and calling for the overthrow of the government. If anything it’s the opposite: people have been seen in the streets mourning the death of the supreme leader. If President Trump was hoping that strikes on the nation would spur regime change, that calculus would appear to be incorrect. It seems that President Trumps strikes are perhaps a few weeks late. It seems right now that the only way to initiate regime change would be to put U.S. boots on the ground, however that clearly is not going to happen.
So where does this leave us? This strike could be a part of a wider plan by President Trump to pressure Iran into accepting a deal that is favorable to the U.S. In other words it could be a negotiation strategy. If it's a negotiation strategy I don’t think it is prudent. It sets a dangerous precedent that, the U.S. does note negotiate in good faith. Negotiations are merely used as a smoke screen or to buy time. This regional conflict is likely to last at least a few more days before some sort of “deal” is reached with the Iranian regime. Remember, President Trump cares about polls, so if his ratings begin dwindle he is likely to pivot. The outcome of this conflict could either make or break Trumps presidency. Time will tell.
