Why The Iran War Will End Sooner Rather Than Later
Disclaimer: This is an opinion/analysis piece
As the Iran war enters its 26th day, a potential ending appears to be not so far down the road. For the past 26 days, the U.S and Israel have been consistently targeting senior Iranian officials and military infrastructure. Targeted military infrastructure has included drone and ballistic missile production sites, nuclear sites, and naval hardware. These strikes have been successful in severely degrading Iran's military. However, they have also contributed to significant regional instability in the Middle East regarding the security situation and global instability regarding oil. As the war approaches its one-month mark, we must now examine the constraints facing President Trump and why those constraints may prompt him to seek peace sooner rather than later.
Iran on Wednesday March 25, 2026
When attempting to predict a decision by a leader, in this case, a decision by President Trump to end the war, it is crucial to understand the constraints that the respective leader faces. In this example, there are a few constraints faced by President Trump: the difficulty of a sustained military campaign, economic uncertainty caused by the conflict, and lack of public support in the U.S. Firstly, a sustained conflict is not something that is viable for the U.S., both from a military perspective and a cost perspective. This war has been fought by the U.S., using advanced, very expensive warplanes, missiles, and drones. The missiles and drones deployed by the U.S. in this conflict are very expensive. For example, one Patriot PAC-3 can cost roughly four million dollars. On the other hand, the Iranian Shahed drone cost roughly 30,000 dollars. So it takes a 4 million dollar missile to shoot down a 30,000 dollar drone. It is clear that this is a problem. Additionally, stockpiles of missile interceptors have been severely depleted, according to a U.S. congressional report. This means, at some point, that the U.S. will begin to have trouble shooting down Iranian one-way attack drones. This first constraint demonstrates that, even if President Trump would like to continue this conflict for a prolonged period of time, the cost and lack of missile interceptors is a very powerful constraint that will contribute heavily to him looking for an off ramp in the near future.
The second constraint facing President Trump is economic uncertainty caused by the conflict. The main contributor to economic uncertainty is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. An open strait of Hormuz is crucial to ensuring stable oil prices. Currently, roughly 20 percent of the world's oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. It is crucial that oil continues to flow through the strait because many parts of the economy require significant amounts of energy. Many people are talking about the possibility of a recession if the strait stays closed for a prolonged period. Specifically, any possible recession would be caused by a lack of oil supply. In general, this conflict has, is, and will continue to cause the economy to contract as long as it continues.
Lastly, a lack of public support for this conflict is a significant reason as to why President Trump will seek to end this conflict soon. Currently, roughly 60 percent of the public disapproves of the war. This number is significant and is likely to increase the longer the war goes on due to an expected rise in energy prices. President Trump's poll numbers have stayed relatively stable, and again his popularity will likely continue to stay the same if not decrease the longer this conflict goes on. When looking at the popularity of past wartime presidents, war typically produces a “rally around the flag effect”, however President Trump's poll numbers have not suggested that such an effect is taking place. A drop in President Trump's poll numbers would likely expedite an end to the conflict, as he cares deeply about his popularity among voters.
I must admit that I am surprised that the conflict has lasted as long as it has. I would have expected a similar, maybe a bit longer, conflict than the 12 day war last June. I do believe that the president understands and feels the constraints he is facing and that these constraints will ultimately force him into ending the conflict in a way in which he can declare victory and prevent more harm to the world economy. My prediction is that the war will end within the next 2-3 weeks. The longer this war continues, the greater the potential consequences of it are.
