2025 German Parliamentary Election Predictions
Disclaimer: My prediction is based purely on the data, not on who I want/support to win the elections.
This upcoming February, Germany will hold federal elections to elect a new Chancellor, following the collapse of the coalition government in late 2024, and subsequently, a vote of no confidence in current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. These elections were initially scheduled for September 2025; however, after the collapse of the current government, snap elections were called.
For the election, Scholz will be representing the centre-left social democratic party (SPD), Friederich Merz will be representing the centre-right Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) party, Robert Habeck will be representing the centre-left Green party, Alice Weidel will be representing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Christian Lindner will be representing the centre-right Free Democratic Party (FDP) party, Sahra WagenKnecht will be representing the far-left BSW party, and finally Jan Van Aken will be representing the Left Party. Currently, the polls show the three main contestants for the chancellorship are the AfD, CDU/CSU, and the SPD. At the time of writing, according to The Economist, Friederich Merz of the CDU/CSU party is leading the polls at an average of 29%, while Alice Weidel of the AfD is following behind with around 22%, and in third place is Scholz polling at an average of 18%.
My Prediction
I believe that Friederich Merz of the CDU/CSU party will win the election and become the Chancellor of Germany. Firstly, the polls show Merz leading by a significant margin over Alice Weidel of the AfD party. The reason I don't believe Weidel will be able to win is because it is highly unlikely that this will be the election where Germany elects their first far-right party since the rise of Nazism. In recent weeks, we have seen protests in Munich against the AfD, with thousands of people supporting these demonstrations. Moreover, one of the main issues the AfD is running on is immigration, saying that if elected they will adopt a strong anti-immigration policy. While the issue of immigration is definitely one of great importance to Germans, as 68% of the population believes that Germany should take fewer refugees according to Deutschlandtrend monthly survey, the CDU/CSU party in recent times has shifted their stance on immigration, becoming much stricter on the issue. This could prove important for the undecided voters who view immigration as their number one issue.
At the time of writing, about 38% of voters are undecided. Many of these people agree with the AfD’s immigration policies but don't support other far right aspects of the party. This would mean the CDU/CSU party would be a good choice for them. Now, the other possibility is that the undecided voters who don't deem immigration as pressing an issue as some do, could choose to vote for leftist parties such as the FDP. It goes without saying that this wouldn't help Merz.
Another very relevant issue in the minds of Germans is the price of energy. Since the war in Ukraine started almost three years ago, prices for energy have skyrocketed. The price of electricity is 27% higher, while the price of gas is 74% higher than before the war in Ukraine. Germans want to see the price of energy come down, and one way to do this is by bringing back nuclear energy. Merz has said he wants to explore the possibility of bringing back nuclear power, which would inevitably lower energy costs for all Germans. On the other hand, the AfD party has again taken a more hardlined stance on this issue. They say that coal power stations should continue operation, and the mining of brown coal should continue. Moreover, they also want to reverse the withdrawal from nuclear energy. Similar to the immigration issue, the more non-extreme energy policies of the CDU/CSU party may appeal to the undecided Germans rather than the extreme policies of the AfD. This is due to the fact that some of these undecided voters want to ensure a more green environment while also lowering energy costs. The AfD checks the box of lower energy costs but most definitely does not check the box in the issue of a greener environment. This election has the ability to make history if the AfD party is elected. However, it just doesn't seem that Germans are ready to make history, at least this time around.
